Project A3 – A Quaternary lake basin model for the Pontocaspian Basins (Black Sea, Caspian Sea) – >University of Reading – ESR >Sifan Koriche – Supervisor >Prof. Joy Singarayer:
This project will simulate the variation of Pontocaspian lake levels on multi‐millennial and millennial time‐scales. The responses of the lake system to P‐E changes resulting from glacial‐ interglacial cycles and shorter DO and HE events will be explored. A regional lake basin model (THMB16) will be driven using outputs from the climate model (project A2) and complementary HadCM3 simulations17. The climate data will be statistically downscaled to the resolution of the lake model Digital Elevation Model to capture effectively basin‐scale hydrological inputs. The project will examine the influence of climate on lake levels, lake connectivity and salinity regimes through the changing E‐P balances of evaporation and precipitation and changing drainage patterns. The outcomes will be evaluated with geochemical and biological proxies from projects A4 and A5. Sensitivity experiments run by A2 to address the climate feedback from lake high‐stand intervals (including expanded lake surface area in the climate model boundary conditions) will be used in this project to assess the degree to which this would have a self‐sustaining impact on the lake system. In addition this project will explore the impact of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya that have at times in the past flowed into the Caspian Sea.