Project C4

Project C4 – Modelling and predicting Pontocaspian biodiversity change and crisis. – >Justus Liebig University Giessen – ESR >Matteo Lattuada – Supervisor >Prof. Tom Wilke:

This project integrates the various information sources on natural (biotic and abiotic) and anthropogenic drivers of biotic changes inferred in WPs1‐3 in empirical modeling approaches to generate informed spatially‐explicit risk estimates for species and communities and to predict future changes (forward modeling) under different Global Change scenarios. It thus serves as baseline for identifying areas of highest conservation management priority in the region. Candidate natural drivers for the models will be obtained from projects A5 and B5; candidate anthropogenic drivers are obtained from projects C1, C2 and C5. Models will be validated using backward modelling of data derived from the short cores (4 sites) and the high resolution age model generated in WP1. Forward modelling will be applied to the modern Kura biota (local scale) and to the Pontocaspian area as a whole (regional scale).